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Roll Call (March 8): Rothenberg & Gonzales: Dem Senate Takeover Probable, If Cruz or Trump Nominee
The burden is on Republican strategists and nominees to prove that they can hold the Senate majority even in light of the party’s civil war.
Some suggest that Republican down-ballot candidates might be able to retain their seats even if the top of the ticket performs poorly, primarily by localizing their races. That conclusion seems more than a bit naïve given what happened in 1964, 1972 and 1980.
… As the Republican nominee, the uncompromising Cruz would end up defining his party’s positions on key issues, while the controversial Trump would inject himself into every race across the country. Either candidacy would make it very difficult for GOP Senate nominees to run their own races and establish their own brand.
… At least five incumbent GOP senators from Democratic-leaning or competitive states were facing difficult re-election races this year even under the most favorable circumstances – Mark Kirk of Illinois, Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire and Rob Portman of Ohio. A Republican open seat in Florida also looked at great risk.
Add in the deep division within the Republican Party, and the possibility of Trump or Cruz leading the national GOP ticket, and all – or at least almost all – of those races suddenly look much more uphill.
G. Terry Madonna & Michael L.Young (March 2): The GOP’s Painful Dilemma
… For Republicans, not so much a Trump nomination looks like trouble up and down the ticket: no White House, maybe loss of the Senate, possible loss of several state legislatures and a few state houses.
In short, the GOP needs some “unforeseen circumstances” if, as many now believe, electoral disaster in 2016 is to be averted.
… The establishment GOP’s motive for trying to stop Trump is strong. Beyond almost any doubt, a Trump nomination would tear the Republican Party asunder – perhaps presaging a generation of wandering in the political wilderness – as happened to Republicans after Hoover’s loss in 1932 and to the Democrats after Humphrey’s loss in 1968.
… Already in late winter, it’s clear that 2016 is likely to be a bad year for the GOP. The next few months should reveal just how bad it will be.
Reading Eagle (March 3): Pennsylvania GOP leaders face tough question on Donald Trump
It’s the elephant in the room, in more ways than one.
With Donald Trump strengthening his place as front-runner for the Republican nomination with a strong showing on Super Tuesday, GOP leaders in Pennsylvania are faced with the uncomfortable question of whether or not to back the controversial real estate mogul.
Analysts said it’s clear Trump’s populist campaign has Republican leaders worried. Some local elected GOP leaders were reluctant to consider their plans if Trump is the nominee.
… Party leaders also have Trump’s unpredictable nature to worry about, said Joshua Weikert, assistant political science professor at Albright College.
“They face a real challenge even assuming he wins and even assuming he hasn’t scorched the earth for the down-ticket races,” he said.
… Concerns about Trump’s effect on other Republican candidates rings especially close to home in Pennsylvania. Republican members of Congress are running for re-election, including some incumbents in moderate districts.
U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey faces competition in a race that has national implications. The contest for Toomey’s seat could determine if Republicans continue to hold the majority in the Senate.
PoliticsPA (March 3): Sabato’s Crystal Ball Predict Trump Trouble
Pat Toomey should fear a Trump nomination.
That is the conclusion of Larry Sabato and Kyle Kondik of Sabato’s Crystal Ball.
They predict that if Donald Trump is the GOP presidential nominee it would dramatically change the landscape of the battle for the Senate. They refer to this shift as a “Trumpmare” for the Republican Party.
… With Trump as the nominee, however, Democrats would hold 51 seats. Illinois and Wisconsin would become Likely D while Florida, New Hampshire and Pennsylvania would be Lean D states.
… Furthermore, according to Sabato and Kondik, Toomey’s seat would be the most dramatically affected as it would be the only one to move two whole categories.
Philadelphia Inquirer (March 2): Some Pa. GOP leaders warming up to Trump
Christopher Nicholas, a Harrisburg-based Republican consultant, said Trump would “get slaughtered” in the Philadelphia suburbs, where statewide races are often decided.
“If you want four more years of Barack Obama via Hillary Clinton, then voting for Trump as the nominee kind of gets you one step closer to that,” Nicholas said. He called it a “fallacy” that Trump would win over enough blue-collar votes to counter the damage: “We already get a lot of those votes.”
… A Franklin and Marshall College Poll released last week found Trump leading the GOP field in Pennsylvania, at 22 percent, though his lead was much slimmer – six percentage points – than in other states where he has won big.
Among all voters, 62 percent viewed him unfavorably, compared to 27 percent who saw him in a positive light.
Associated Press (Jan. 24): Pennsylvania GOP eyes Trump, Cruz effect on Toomey’s chances
But, in a state where Democrats hold a four-to-three registration edge over Republicans, political analysts and strategists say Toomey cannot win in a presidential election year without attracting support from conservative Democrats or independent voters. And a number of Republicans argue that nominating the poll-leading Donald Trump or Ted Cruz, the Texas senator, would make that task far more difficult for Toomey.
… Jim Roddey, the Allegheny County GOP chairman, contended that neither Trump nor Cruz will inspire voters tired of acrimony and divisiveness in politics, and that will trickle down to hurt Toomey and every other Republican candidate down the ballot.
… Christopher Borick, a pollster and political science professor at Muhlenberg College in Allentown, said a Trump or Cruz nomination is a real concern for Republicans in Pennsylvania. To a large extent, voter decisions are based around their presidential preference, Borick said.
“In some cases, you’re held captive to that if you’re running down-ballot,” Borick said. “I’m sure the Toomey campaign thinks about that night and day.”
Philadelphia Inquirer (Jan. 25): Will Trump or Cruz sink Toomey re-election bid?
Republican anxiety is growing in Pennsylvania and corners of New Jersey over the possibility that Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will win the party’s presidential nomination.
Tough races loom down the ballot in both states – most prominently Republican Sen. Pat Toomey’s re-election bid in Pennsylvania – and establishment figures worry that the bombastic New York billionaire or acerbic Texas senator could make the GOP toxic to critical swing voters in both states.
“Their presence at the top of the ticket would create serious problems,” said former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge, a Republican. “One of the challenges I think the party needs to understand nationally – nationally – is that our candidate, our presidential candidate, can have a positive or negative impact on other races.”
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