Key Point: “Is it possible for Toomey and Portman to outperform the Republican presidential nominee and go on to win? Yes, but it is very difficult..the wider the margin of victory at the top of the ticket, the less likely a Portman or a Toomey can survive.
“… If Trump proves to be a serious drag on the ticket, there isn’t much that either incumbent can do to rescue their re-election bids.”
Cook Political Report: Ohio and Pennsylvania Rating Changes
By Jennifer Duffy – March 25, 2016
Not all rating changes are created equal.
Some changes happen when a first-tier candidate gets into a race and instantly makes it more competitive. Others occur because an incumbent retires, rendering the open seat more vulnerable. Still other rating changes are made in the wake of an event significant enough to alter the trajectory of a race. Finally, some races move into more competitive categories not because of anything specific to that race or to the candidates running but because of the overall political environment. This is the case in our two latest rating changes.
Ohio where GOP U.S. Sen. Rob Portman is running for a second term and Pennsylvania where Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey is seeking re-election are both moving to the Toss Up column.
… Democrats argue that Toomey is too conservative and that any moves he has made toward moderation have been less than sincere.
… First, and perhaps most important, Portman and Toomey won these seats in 2010, which was a very good Republican year. Now they face re-election in a presidential year in states that President Obama carried in 2008 and 2012. He beat Republican nominee John McCain by five points in 2008, and defeated Mitt Romney by three points for years later. In 2008, Obama won Pennsylvania by 10 points and scored a five-point victory in 2012.
Is it possible for Toomey and Portman to outperform the Republican presidential nominee and go on to win? Yes, but it is very difficult. The closer the presidential race is in these states, the more likely that can happen. Conversely, the wider the margin of victory at the top of the ticket, the less likely a Portman or a Toomey can survive.
The questions about margin of victory (or defeat depending on which bench you sit on) become more relevant when it comes to the Trump conundrum. If Donald Trump is in fact the GOP presidential nominee, how much damage does he do to Republicans in races down the ballot? The honest answer is that no one knows for certain because there is no precedent, but the sense today is that he will be a negative. If Trump proves to be a serious drag on the ticket, there isn’t much that either incumbent can do to rescue their re-election bids.
It has been suggested that simply based on presidential performance both of these races should have started out in the Toss Up column. An argument can be made to support that notion if only to avoid having too much read into the fact that they are moving now. In truth, both of these races were going to end up in the Toss Up column; it was just a matter of when.