Donald Trump has cast a long, dark shadow over Pat Toomey’s reelection. The Senator has only made matters worse by refusing to take a principled stand on his Party’s nominee. On the one hand he says he disagrees with Trump’s racism and bigotry, while on the other he said as recently as last week:
“I’m certainly not in the never Trump category.”
In a new National Review magazine piece, Toomey’s tortured campaign is expressed in awkward anecdotes; even with friendly conservative crowds across the commonwealth, Toomey faces constant indignation over his cowardly stance on Trump.
* As Senator Pat Toomey walked into a packed room at the Morris Family Restaurant in Bloomsburg, Pa., an old man sitting in a corner shouted: “If you don’t support him, I don’t support you!” Harvey Eckert, a retired federal employee, pointed to his red baseball cap with the familiar words: “Make America Great Again.”
* When he finished, Toomey took questions — and the first one came in the form of a statement from David J. McElwee, a gun dealer in a red blazer: “It’s very important to us that you support theRepublican nominee.” He handed Toomey an envelope. It contained a letter in which McElwee pledged to vote for the senator, “but that is all.” And so instead of discussing the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons, a new transfer of terrorists out of the prison at Guantanamo Bay, or the dilemma of sanctuary cities (topics Toomey had raised in his brief remarks), the senator found himself explaining his views on the subject that has dominated American political life for the last year: Donald Trump.
* On the matter of Trump himself, however, Toomey hasn’t budged — and he’s hearing about it from rank-and-file Republicans who don’t understand why their GOP senator refuses to get behind their GOP presidential nominee.
* Yet Republican voters kept asking him about the presidential race. At a closed-door meeting at the GOP headquarters in Mifflin County — organizers tossed out a pair of McGinty supporters who tried to infiltrate, hoping to record the senator’s remarks — Toomey once again talked about his opponent’s liberalism, sanctuary cities, and more. When he finished, however, Toomey faced another barrage: “Are you going to support Trump?” blared Jim Smith, a retired businessman from Lewistown, from the back of the room. “You’re making it very difficult for us to keep supporting you.”
National Review Magazine: Toomey’s Travails
By John J. Miller – August 26, 2016
Central Pennsylvania
As Senator Pat Toomey walked into a packed room at the Morris Family Restaurant in Bloomsburg, Pa., an old man sitting in a corner shouted: “If you don’t support him, I don’t support you!” Harvey Eckert, a retired federal employee, pointed to his red baseball cap with the familiar words: “Make America Great Again.” Toomey heard Eckert’s booming voice but kept moving between rows of tables where local Republicans ate omelets and hash browns. On the opposite side of the room, the GOP senator made his pitch for reelection, talking about economic growth, national security, and law enforcement, his voice competing against the clatter of forks, knives, and breakfast plates.
When he finished, Toomey took questions — and the first one came in the form of a statement from David J. McElwee, a gun dealer in a red blazer: “It’s very important to us that you support the Republican nominee.” He handed Toomey an envelope. It contained a letter in which McElwee pledged to vote for the senator, “but that is all.” And so instead of discussing the threat of Iranian nuclear weapons, a new transfer of terrorists out of the prison at Guantanamo Bay, or the dilemma of sanctuary cities (topics Toomey had raised in his brief remarks), the senator found himself explaining his views on the subject that has dominated American political life for the last year: Donald Trump.
The scene took place on August 16 — Toomey’s first stop on the third day of an eight-day RV trip across the Keystone State — in what promises to be one of the closest Senate elections of 2016. Most Republican officeholders have endorsed Donald Trump for president, even when they’ve done it grudgingly. Toomey, however, has refused. “I’m not alone among Republicans with reservations,” he said at the Morris Family Restaurant. Toomey mentioned Trump’s long history of supporting Democrats, his calls for government-run health care, and his suggestion that his sister belongs on the Supreme Court, even though she’s a liberal. “Hillary Clinton is not acceptable to me,” Toomey added, apparently to avoid potential confusion. On this point, at least, his audience was in complete agreement.
Ever since 2010, when Toomey won his first election to the Senate by just two percentage points, Democrats have marked him for defeat. Just as Trump probably needs to carry Pennsylvania to become president, Democrats almost certainly must beat Toomey to capture a majority in the Senate. It won’t be easy: Toomey has never lost to a Democrat. And although Toomey has compiled a conservative voting record — the American Conservative Union gives him a lifetime score of 93 — he has also developed a reputation as a Republican who can work with Democrats to break the Washington gridlock that most people say they despise. On guns, he has called for expanded background checks, to the satisfaction of former New York City mayor Michael Bloomberg (who endorsed Toomey for reelection on August 1). On gays, he favored repealing the ban on out-and-proud military personnel. On budgets, he has shown a willingness to fight deficits by erasing tax breaks. In other words, Toomey is the kind of Republican senator that a ticket-splitting mom in suburban Philadelphia might support.
Toomey also has made at least one painful concession to Trump’s populism: Writing in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on August 17, the senator walked away from a history of backing free-trade agreements and came out against the Trans-Pacific Partnership, the pending twelve-nation pact that Trump has opposed with vigor. “TPP is not a good deal for Pennsylvania,” wrote Toomey. “I cannot support it.”
On the matter of Trump himself, however, Toomey hasn’t budged — and he’s hearing about it from rank-and-file Republicans who don’t understand why their GOP senator refuses to get behind their GOP presidential nominee. Toomey hasn’t ruled out an endorsement: “I’m hoping Donald Trump can become a candidate I enthusiastically support,” he said in Lewisburg, after speaking to Republicans at the Cherry Alley Cafe. “I’m not there yet.”
As he wrestles with the anxieties that so many conservatives have felt about Trump, Toomey will choose between sticking to a principle that puzzles people whose votes he needs and making a compromise that he probably fears will haunt him later. His decision, and the question of whether he runs ahead of or behind Trump on November 8, will shape the post-election recriminations of 2016.
The 54-year-old Toomey was born in Rhode Island, worked on Wall Street, and moved to Pennsylvania in 1991 to open a restaurant in Allentown. In 1998, he ran for Congress from the Lehigh Valley region, winning a seat that a retiring Democrat had held for three terms. Toomey went on to serve six years, keeping a term-limits pledge to serve no more. Yet he didn’t drop out of politics. In 2004, he took on Arlen Specter, a longtime Republican senator with a liberal voting record, for the GOP nomination. In an insurgent bid that prefigured the tea-party eruptions of several years later, Toomey lost by just 17,000 votes out of more than a million cast. Along the way, he became a kind of conservative folk hero. In May 2008, he wrote an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal with a provocative headline: “In Defense of RINO Hunting.” (As most conservatives know, “RINO” is an old putdown, standing for “Republican in Name Only.”) When Toomey announced a new challenge to Specter in 2010, the RINO incumbent switched parties and lost the Democratic primary. Meanwhile, Toomey coasted to the Republican nomination and won the general election.
… Toomey’s campaign is probably preparing the television ads about sanctuary cities and Aguirre-Ochoa right now. The senator, however, didn’t have to wait. On his swing through central Pennsylvania, he mentioned sanctuary cities at just about every stop, from greasy spoons in small towns to a sports bar in State College, as Olympic basketball and field hockey played on televisions above his head.
Yet Republican voters kept asking him about the presidential race. At a closed-door meeting at the GOP headquarters in Mifflin County — organizers tossed out a pair of McGinty supporters who tried to infiltrate, hoping to record the senator’s remarks — Toomey once again talked about his opponent’s liberalism, sanctuary cities, and more. When he finished, however, Toomey faced another barrage: “Are you going to support Trump?” blared Jim Smith, a retired businessman from Lewistown, from the back of the room. “You’re making it very difficult for us to keep supporting you.”
Earlier this year, Toomey endorsed Marco Rubio for the Republican presidential nomination. By the time of Pennsylvania’s primary on April 26, however, Rubio was long gone. Toomey voted for Ted Cruz. Most Republicans in his state favored Trump. “When Trump took every county, I saw that he was the only train leaving the station,” said Congressman Glenn Thompson, before he and Toomey spoke at a dairy farm in Spruce Creek. Should Toomey now follow Thompson’s example? “That’s for him to decide,” said Thompson, a Pennsylvania Republican who also once supported Rubio. “He needs to get reelected.”
Not every Pennsylvania Republican has endorsed Trump. Former governor Tom Ridge, who served as secretary of homeland security in the George W. Bush administration, announced in May that he won’t vote for either Clinton or Trump. Yet Ridge has the luxury of not having to justify himself, over and over again, to people who show up at Republican gatherings.
Toomey explained his views on Trump most clearly in a column for the Philadelphia Inquirer on May 9, shortly after Trump became the presumptive nominee. “I object to much in his manner and his policies. His vulgarity, particularly toward women, is appalling. His lack of appreciation for Constitutional limits on executive powers is deeply concerning.” He also cited Trump’s stances on eminent domain, Muslim immigration, and foreign policy. “I have never been a rubber stamp for my party’s positions or its candidates,” added Toomey — a true statement that in another context might draw hoots of approval from voters who like to think they’re bucking a political establishment.
When Toomey continues to withhold his own support, he’s either doing an admirable job of sticking to his anti-Trump principles or making the cool calculation that an association with Trump will hurt him more in the southeastern part of the state than it will help him elsewhere. The senator knows that he won’t prevail in Philadelphia and its environs, where Democrats dominate, but he needs to keep his losses there to a minimum while also eking out a win in the Pittsburgh area and running up his total everywhere else. This was his formula for victory in 2010, and it’s how he hopes to repeat his success this year. A Franklin & Marshall College poll of likely voters released on August 4 showed a virtual tie between McGinty and Toomey (39 percent to 38 percent, respectively, with 23 percent undecided). Among registered voters, Toomey ran ahead of Trump in the southeastern part of the state but behind Trump in the places where Toomey needs to do well.
At the meeting in Mifflin County, and elsewhere, Toomey defended his position on Trump. “I want to see him bring the Republican party together,” he said. He mentioned a couple of encouraging signs, such as Trump’s list of potential Supreme Court nominees, all of them conservative, plus Trump’s selection of Indiana governor Mike Pence as a running mate: “He’s a great choice.” Toomey also suggested that his non-endorsement has paid dividends: “Conservatives withholding support have contributed to these constructive developments. So I think there’s been some progress. I’d like to see more.”
That morning, in the parking lot of the Moore Family Restaurant, David J. McElwee — the gun dealer in a red blazer — talked about what was in the envelope, besides a letter, that he had handed to Toomey a few minutes earlier. “I gave him a Trump for President bumper sticker,” he said. “I told him it would look good on his RV.”
I followed that RV over the hills and through the valleys of central Pennsylvania. The bumper sticker never went on.